Tables, Figures, and Boxes
Preface
Part I: The Process, the Participants, and the Product
Chapter 1: Introduction
Chapter 2: Intelligence in the Age of Contested Norms and Persistent Disorder
| Nature of Twenty-First-Century Conflict |
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| The Function of Intelligence |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process
| The Traditional Intelligence Cycle |
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| Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 4: The Customer
| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 5: The Analyst
| Critical and Logical Thinking |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 6: The Analytic Network
| The U.S. National Intelligence Network |
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| Collaboration and Sharing |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 7: The Intelligence Product
| What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce? |
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| Constraints on the Intelligence Product |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Part II: The Analysis Process
Chapter 8: The Intelligence Issue
| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 9: Target Models
| Modeling the Intelligence Target |
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| Some General Target Models |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 10: The Target Framework
| Creating a Target Framework |
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| Issue 1: Al-Shabaab Ideology |
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| Issue 2: Influencing Azerbaijan |
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| Issue 3: The Monopolitania BW Threat |
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| Alternative and Competitive Target Frameworks |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 11: Analyzing Existing Intelligence
| Existing Finished Intelligence |
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| Sources of Raw Intelligence |
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| A Note about the Role of Information Technology |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 12: The Information Sources: Filling Gaps
| Interrelating the Issue Decomposition and Target Framework |
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| Developing the Collection Strategy |
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| Executing Collection Strategies |
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| Analyst-Collector Interaction |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 13: Denial, Deception, and Signaling
| Defense against Denial and Deception: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods |
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| Countering Denial and Deception |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 14: Gaining Customer Acceptance
| Reviewing the Analytic Product |
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| Analyst as Advocate: Getting Buy-In |
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| Aftermath: Dealing with Unexpected Outcomes |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Part III: Anticipatory Analysis and Modeling
Chapter 15: Anticipatory Analysis: Forces
| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 16: Anticipatory Analysis: Methodology
| Convergent and Divergent Phenomena |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 17: Outcome Scenarios
| How to Construct Scenarios |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 18: Systems Modeling and Analysis
| Systems Analysis Methodology |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 19: Relationship Modeling and Analysis
| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 20: Geospatial Modeling and Analysis
| Dynamic Geospatial Models |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 21: Simulation Modeling
| Creating and Running a Simulation |
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| Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis |
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| Decision Modeling and Simulation |
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| Checking the Decision Model: Red Team Analysis |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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Chapter 22: Case Study: A Tale of Two NIEs
| The Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction NIE |
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| Critical Thinking Questions |
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List of Commonly Used Acronyms
Index
About the Author
